UK Diplomats Advised Against Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Newly disclosed documents reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military action to remove the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Government Documents Show Considerations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials weighed up options on how best to handle the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country fell into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, Downing Street asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Isolation Strategy Considered Not Working

Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.

Options outlined in the documents included:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Implement tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach advocated by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its bad policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "serious option," adding that "The only nation for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No other country (even the US) would be prepared to do so".

Warnings of Significant Losses and Legal Hurdles

It cautioned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "serious consequences" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in widespread bloodshed, significant exodus of refugees, and instability in the region – we judge that no nation in Africa would support any attempts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The document continues: "We also believe that any other international ally (including the US) would sanction or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an approving Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a real spoiler" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a firm agreement."

The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has said and done".

The Zimbabwean leader was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, at the age of 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the ex-British leader.